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I’m torn between Germany and Brazil to win it and England to get out of their group but lose the next match.

England will scrape out of their group, win their next match, raising the hopes, and then lose to Germany or Brazil.

With England it’s not a question of whether they will win, we know they won’t, but there is always some level of novelty to the defeat. OK last time it was just quick and painless, in fact I was too busy cycling around Yorkshire to notice it had started before they were out. But on other occasions, we’ve had the hand of god or the goal that never was, Seaman beaten from the halfway line or a hero sent off after cheating by a swarthy foreigner. Actually, we’ve had at least two of those. Will England play brilliantly yet lose in a penalty shoot-out, or being utterly terrible and lose in a penalty shoot-out ?

England are 12-1 to win the WC. For those of you unfamiliar with gambling, this means if you bet £100 on England, you will lose £100.